Qu Daokui: Deep Thoughts on the Development of China's Robot Industry

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Time of issue:2020-03-17 15:14
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(Summary description)Robotsareoneofthebiggesttechnologicalinventionsofthe20thcentury.Robotscanalsobecalledthepearlofthecrownofmanufacturing.Nowthefameofrobots,bothtechnicallyandstrategicallyinthefuture,hasreachedanunparalleledhighpoint,buttherealrobothasbeendevelopedformorethanhalfacentury.Whatisitsperformanceonthemarket?Doestherobothaveabadnameormatchitsname? Inthisregard,QuDaokui,presidentofShenyangXinsongRobotAutomationCo.,Ltd.pointedoutthattherobothaslessthan2millionunitssofar.Chinaproduces20millioncarsayear.Robotsasanindustryorproductarealmostnegligible.Assuchanimportantproduct,therobothaslessthan2millionunitsinmorethanhalfacentury,whichissurprisinglyfarfromitsreputation. 趋势Thetrendoftheworld'slargestrobotmarketremainsunchanged Accordingtostatistics,from2009to2014,duringtherapiddevelopmentoftheworld’srobots,especiallyinthecontextoftheglobalfinancialcrisis,robotshavegrownagainstthetrend.Theglobalgrowthrateiscloseto30%.China’sgrowthrateismorethan50%andcloseto60%.Inrecentyears,ithasenteredanewstageofrapiddevelopmentofrobots.Chinaisparticularlyprominenthere.In2013,Chinabecametheworld'slargestmarketforrobots.In2014,China'smarketincreasedby54%andremainstheworld'slargestmarket.Itisexpectedthatinthenext10yearsoreven15years,Chinawillcontinuetomaintainthetrendoftheworld'slargestrobotmarket.Morecritically,thedensityofrobotsandtheaverageinternationaldensityinChinahavenotyetreachedhalf,whichindicatesthattheChinesemarkethashugepotential. Robottechnologyisveryimportant,buttheoverallperformanceoftherobotmarketisnotideal.Costandpricearefactorsononehand,andtherealfactorsmaybetechnical.QuDaokuipointedoutthatfromthemarketperformancedata,wecanseethattheglobalaveragedensityofrobotsis0.62%,andChinahasonlyreached0.3%.Infact,therobotreplacementratecanbeignored.Because99.38%oftheworld’saverageworkisstilldonebyhumans,thereplacementrateofrobotsinitisonlyalittleover0.6%,and99.7%inChinaisstilloperatedbyhumans.Fromthis,wecananalyzewhysuchalargeworkloadrobotcannotbereplaced,becausetherobottechnologycannotsupportandisnotqualifiedinmanyfields.Robotsdonothavetheconditionstoreplacehumansatall,notincostandprice,butinproductfunctionsandperformancethatcannotmeetthelarge-scalerigidrequirementsoftruemanufacturing. Robottechnologyhasobviouslimitations Nowthetypicalindustrialrobotlacksthesensingsystem.Generalvision,forceperceptionandotherperceptionsarenotavailableincurrentrobots.Whatelseismissingfromtherobot?Lackofdexterity.Intherealmanufacturingindustry,alargenumberofjobs,especiallylabor-intensivejobs,arealmostdependentonhumandexterity,whichisexactlywhatrobotslacktoday.Robotshaveneitheraperceptualsystemnorasmartoperatingsystem.Accordingtohumans,robotsshouldbeaseverelydisabledperson,whichisbasicallyexcludedfromemploymentinhumans.Thisisthestatusquoofrobotstoday. Today'srobotscanonlydoprogrammedandregulatedworkinastructuredworkenvironment.Robotscandonothingiftheyreallyneeddexterity,orinanenvironmentthatrequiresflexibility.Thisproblemhaspreventedalargeclassofworkingrobotsfromdoingit,includingtypicallabor-intensivetasks.Animportantdevelopmenttrendofrobotsinthefutureliesin3C(communications,electronics,consumer),andthetasksthatworkersneedtoperformintheseareasaretousesmarthandsorfingerstodosmartwork,butrobotscannot.Thereisalsoalargeclassofspecialworkthatcannotbedonewithoutacertainstandard.Industrialrobotsthatreallyneedalotoflaborareallpowerless,andthereasonsforanalysisarestilltechnicalissues. Intelligenceisthemaindirectionofrobottechnologybreakthrough Theroleofrobotsinspecialfields.Oneisthereplacementofhumans,andtheotheristheexpansionofhumancapabilities.Whatrobotsaredoinginthisfieldisjustbeginning.Today,duetothelimitationsofmanytechnologies,robotsareonlyconfinedtoaverynarrowpartofthemanufacturingindustry.Thisalsoexplainswhythereareonly2millionrobotsintheworldtoday,whichhasbeendevelopedforhalfacentury.Asanindustry,itcanbesaidtobeminimal.Inviewofthissituation,thenextbreakthroughinrobottechnologyismainlyreflectedinthefollowingaspects: Thefirstistherobot'soperatingability,startingfromdexterity;thesecondistheautonomousdecision-makingabilityoftherobot;thethirdistherobot'sinteractiveability,unlikethepast,whichreliedonprogrammingandkeyboards,butthroughotherinteractionmethodstosolvetherobotthroughthis.Whenworkinginacomplexenvironment,solvetheinclusivenessofrobotsandhumans,butalsosolvetheproblemofautonomousconsciousnessrelatedtojobdecisions,andfocusonsolvingtheproblemofrobotinteraction.Aftertheseseveraltechnologicalbreakthroughs,therobotwillgetridofthestatusquo,whichisnowonlyusedasamechanicaldeviceinspecialfields,andenterthebroadmarket. KuQuDaokuipointedoutthatthedevelopmentofrobotintelligenttechnologymaynowgothroughthreestages.Thefirststageiscomputationalintelligence.Today'srobotsaremainlyembodiedinprogrammingandcalculations,withtrajectorycalculationsasthemainstay.Inthesecondstage,enterthesensoryintelligence.Varioussensorsmustcomeintoimprovetheadaptabilityoftherobottotheexternalenvironment.Thethirdstage,cognitiveintelligence,isrelativelylong-term.Inthesethreestages,thecurrentfocu

Qu Daokui: Deep Thoughts on the Development of China's Robot Industry

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Qu Daokui: Deep Thoughts on the Development of China's Robot Industry

Categories:Industry news
Author:
Origin:
Time of issue:2020-03-17 15:14
Views:

Information

Robots are one of the biggest technological inventions of the 20th century. Robots can also be called the pearl of the crown of manufacturing. Now the fame of robots, both technically and strategically in the future, has reached an unparalleled high point, but the real robot has been developed for more than half a century. What is its performance on the market? Does the robot have a bad name or match its name?

In this regard, Qu Daokui, president of Shenyang Xinsong Robot Automation Co., Ltd. pointed out that the robot has less than 2 million units so far. China produces 20 million cars a year. Robots as an industry or product are almost negligible. As such an important product, the robot has less than 2 million units in more than half a century, which is surprisingly far from its reputation.

趋势 The trend of the world's largest robot market remains unchanged

According to statistics, from 2009 to 2014, during the rapid development of the world ’s robots, especially in the context of the global financial crisis, robots have grown against the trend. The global growth rate is close to 30%. China ’s growth rate is more than 50% and close to 60% . In recent years, it has entered a new stage of rapid development of robots. China is particularly prominent here. In 2013, China became the world's largest market for robots. In 2014, China's market increased by 54% and remains the world's largest market. It is expected that in the next 10 years or even 15 years, China will continue to maintain the trend of the world's largest robot market. More critically, the density of robots and the average international density in China have not yet reached half, which indicates that the Chinese market has huge potential.

Robot technology is very important, but the overall performance of the robot market is not ideal. Cost and price are factors on one hand, and the real factors may be technical. Qu Daokui pointed out that from the market performance data, we can see that the global average density of robots is 0.62%, and China has only reached 0.3%. In fact, the robot replacement rate can be ignored. Because 99.38% of the world ’s average work is still done by humans, the replacement rate of robots in it is only a little over 0.6%, and 99.7% in China is still operated by humans. From this, we can analyze why such a large workload robot cannot be replaced, because the robot technology cannot support and is not qualified in many fields. Robots do not have the conditions to replace humans at all, not in cost and price, but in product functions and performance that cannot meet the large-scale rigid requirements of true manufacturing.

Robot technology has obvious limitations

Now the typical industrial robot lacks the sensing system. General vision, force perception and other perceptions are not available in current robots. What else is missing from the robot? Lack of dexterity. In the real manufacturing industry, a large number of jobs, especially labor-intensive jobs, are almost dependent on human dexterity, which is exactly what robots lack today. Robots have neither a perceptual system nor a smart operating system. According to humans, robots should be a severely disabled person, which is basically excluded from employment in humans. This is the status quo of robots today.

Today's robots can only do programmed and regulated work in a structured work environment. Robots can do nothing if they really need dexterity, or in an environment that requires flexibility. This problem has prevented a large class of working robots from doing it, including typical labor-intensive tasks. An important development trend of robots in the future lies in 3C (communications, electronics, consumer), and the tasks that workers need to perform in these areas are to use smart hands or fingers to do smart work, but robots cannot. There is also a large class of special work that cannot be done without a certain standard. Industrial robots that really need a lot of labor are all powerless, and the reasons for analysis are still technical issues.

Intelligence is the main direction of robot technology breakthrough

The role of robots in special fields. One is the replacement of humans, and the other is the expansion of human capabilities. What robots are doing in this field is just beginning. Today, due to the limitations of many technologies, robots are only confined to a very narrow part of the manufacturing industry. This also explains why there are only 2 million robots in the world today, which has been developed for half a century. As an industry, it can be said to be minimal. In view of this situation, the next breakthrough in robot technology is mainly reflected in the following aspects:

The first is the robot's operating ability, starting from dexterity; the second is the autonomous decision-making ability of the robot; the third is the robot's interactive ability, unlike the past, which relied on programming and keyboards, but through other interaction methods to solve the robot through this. When working in a complex environment, solve the inclusiveness of robots and humans, but also solve the problem of autonomous consciousness related to job decisions, and focus on solving the problem of robot interaction. After these several technological breakthroughs, the robot will get rid of the status quo, which is now only used as a mechanical device in special fields, and enter the broad market.

Ku Qu Daokui pointed out that the development of robot intelligent technology may now go through three stages. The first stage is computational intelligence. Today's robots are mainly embodied in programming and calculations, with trajectory calculations as the mainstay. In the second stage, enter the sensory intelligence. Various sensors must come in to improve the adaptability of the robot to the external environment. The third stage, cognitive intelligence, is relatively long-term. In these three stages, the current focus of robot development is the second stage of "perceived intelligence", which can realize the adaptability of robots in the manufacturing field or the external environment. Cognitive intelligence also requires long-term accumulation, and what needs to be broken before is the field of cognitive intelligence.

Now robots have two attributes. The first attribute is the machine attribute or mechanical attribute of the robot. It is this attribute that the robot develops to the present. The second is human attributes, intelligence, wisdom, and dexterity. Today robots are at a turning point from machines to humans, that is, the improvement of intelligence.

风险 The risk of low-end industrial chain cannot be ignored

For the current status of the development of the Chinese robot industry, Qu Daokui objectively evaluated and pointed out that there may be 700 ~ 800 robot companies in China with a certain influence, which is an explosive development in just three or five years. The number of Chinese robots has increased, and the speed of development has increased. But what is the quality of enterprise products and what is the meaning of Chinese robots?

Research data show that the current huge problems of Chinese robots include three aspects. The first is the level of robot technology and the complexity of robots. Multi-joint robots account for 90% of foreign companies. The second is the difficulty of robot operation. Now robots are more reflected in welding, accounting for 84% of welding abroad. The third is industry applications. The high-end applications of real robots are mainly concentrated in the automotive industry, and foreign companies account for 90% of this field. This shows that the technical level of Chinese robots, that is, the complexity of robots is at a relatively large disadvantage, and foreign companies and technologies occupy a dominant position.

With the development of the trend, China is likely to be at the low end in the industrial chain in the future and gradually be marginalized by the market. Chinese enterprises may not be able to enter many mainstream markets. This is a very important issue. From the perspective of robot products, China's current problem is the low-end industrial chain of the high-end market and the risk of marginalization of the market.

Yu Qu Daokui pointed out that China is the world's largest market, and at the same time, China has also become the world's most competitive battlefield for robots. The number of companies in the Chinese robotics industry has grown rapidly in recent years, but the quality needs to be greatly improved. There are three major potential risks in the Chinese robot industry. One is technology, which is likely to be hollowed out; the other is low-end application; the third is market marginalization. These three potential risks must be taken seriously by China's robotics industry and Chinese robotics companies and must be addressed. Fourth, it is imperative that China cultivates enterprises with international competitiveness. As a country, a leading company without an international level cannot occupy an international advantage or competitive position. The Chinese government is now building a large robot-related platform, a research and development platform, an inspection and testing platform, and other standard platforms. These are relevant platforms that the Chinese robot industry needs to support.

Intelligent manufacturing expands robot application space

曲 In Qu Daokui's view, Industry 4.0 brings a new concept to redefine the product. Although the product name has not changed, the content of the product has changed dramatically. Now Industry 4.0 is going to accompany the second machine revolution. The typical representative of this is the new robot. The mission of traditional robots is to support the first three industrial revolutions as a support for large equipment. The fourth industrial revolution must be supported by a new generation of robots, which must meet the new requirements of data, network, and cloud.

Now an era of intelligent manufacturing has come. This era has several basic characteristics: First, the re-industrialization of the United States, the revolution of the Internet of Things in the United States, including the European Union's Industry 4.0 and Japan's revival strategy and the Japanese robot revolution, and even China Manufacturing 2025, all this marks the world has entered a new stage of development. This stage is called the transformation of great intelligence, and the core is intelligence. First of all, a large model change is needed in the large category of intelligent manufacturing. Second, in order to support intelligent manufacturing, intelligent equipment is needed, and it produces intelligent products. At the same time, the design methods include digitalization and intelligentization of management methods. This is a time of big system change.

The status quo of robots today is that technology cannot provide support, and many functions and performance cannot meet the needs. The new generation of robots first has new support in technology. Including network technology, sensing, big data, new-generation materials, etc., there have been tremendous changes in technology. The definition of the new generation of robots has got rid of the concept of equipment and has become a true partner of human beings. Whether in manufacturing or daily life, special fields, new robots and traditional robots have undergone tremendous changes in connotation and function. According to this definition, the future of manufacturing is only one of the fields of robotics. The fields of medical care, national defense security, and service life are the big space for robotics in the future. The future big market, the multi-trillion-dollar market, is the new robot market. range.

机遇 The robot industry has more opportunities than challenges

At present, all countries in the world regard new robots as national development strategies. Robots are the comprehensive integration of multiple high and new technologies. The development of robots almost represents the development level and development stage of a country's comprehensive technology. Robots also have a large functional support technology, which has a huge supporting effect on manufacturing, defense security, and daily life. This is a huge difference between robots and other products. The continuity of robots, any technology and product has its development stage and life cycle, but the robot can hardly see its end point, it should be developed and sustained along with the development of human society.

Ku Qu Daokui pointed out that in the past, robots and humans had to be independent and separated. Now, using sensing systems, robots can fully interact and collaborate with humans. The new definition or redefinition of robots has opened up a new era of robot development. We think that traditional robots have come to an end from the technical level, but robot products will continue for ten or fifteen years because of the development of the Chinese industry and Compared with international development, it has a certain dislocation and lag. Robots are now not just in manufacturing, they have entered all areas of human life. More critically, traditional robots have now entered the era of low added value. China is now at a critical turning point in the transition of robots. Traditional robots need to be upgraded and new robot products are gradually entering the market. I believe that the opportunities of China's robotics industry far outweigh the challenges.

● Related reports

Robotics: the fusion of science and engineering

Raja Chatila, chairman of the IEEE Institute of Automation and Robotics, believes that robotics is a relatively special field, and it has realized the integration of science and engineering. They can replace humans to work in very complicated and harmful environments, and they can help, assist humans at home, in the workplace, assist humans, especially people with disabilities, and can achieve human rehabilitation, which are all very good. application. So how can we make these features more efficient and extend into the real world?

For robots, how do they do it? By building a brain model, you can achieve a fusion of connections between science and engineering, because you can use the latest discoveries in science to build better robot systems. At the same time, it is important to use robot systems. Better understand or design some mathematical models to explain what happens in the natural world in the human brain.

By studying human cybernetics, as well as the control of human gait and movement, you can better understand how to design a humanoid robot, so that it can complete more complex tasks in different constraints and environments, and achieve a comprehensive body Control, that is, to achieve walking, and to simulate daily human movements, to manipulate objects, and to combine different degrees of freedom and actuators, representatives of advanced systems control different degrees of freedom, The degree of freedom is integrated into a fully controlled and very fluid architecture.

Another important part is that it is possible for the robot and its creatures to have problems or cause damage. So let the robot be able to adapt and reconfigure after destruction, so that it can repair itself like humans or creatures.

In addition, how to understand the environment, how to understand the surrounding environment, how to understand the object to be manipulated? Humans try to understand surrounding objects, not only observing them but also manipulating them. Observation and manipulation mean look and feel, which can be integrated together. The robot can understand the tolerance of surrounding objects, not only what it looks like, but also the environment around it.

RajaChatila pointed out that robots and humans must interact with each other as well as humans. This is a very important issue. Robots need to help humans do some actions and complete some work. They must interact effectively with humans. And robots They must be able to plan their actions and be able to respond to humans.

Because of this, robots must have something in common with humans to accomplish tasks together. What they have in common means that they can understand some human instructions and what they want them to do, so that they can interact with humans efficiently, and for human partners, the actions of robots must be comfortable for humans. The basis for interaction between robots. This interaction is also very important to think for others. From here we can see that humans and robots have some common tasks. Robots help humans clean the table. People put some objects in the hands of the robot. Therefore, the robot and human must be together. Help each other when completing tasks. This is based on the common action theory. This theory comes from philosophers and psychologists who study human actions and interactions with people. To interact, of course, people have to do less, because humans want robots to help do things, not just to do the work with humans.

The world's largest market trend remains unchanged. The development of the Chinese robot industry needs deeper thinking. RajaChatila pointed out that

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